Orson Welles, one of Hollywood's most enigmatic figures, chose Elmyr de Hory as the subject of his final film, "F is for Fake". Welles felt de Hory's story, told to him at a party over cocktails, was the stuff of legend, but not for the reason one might think.
11.29.2009
"Counter" Terrorism
Orson Welles, one of Hollywood's most enigmatic figures, chose Elmyr de Hory as the subject of his final film, "F is for Fake". Welles felt de Hory's story, told to him at a party over cocktails, was the stuff of legend, but not for the reason one might think.
11.24.2009
Oh, Sarah. . .!
I was introduced to reading at a young age. There is no way of confirming this for certain, but the first book I can remember thumbing through was Alex Haley's 'The Autobiography of Malcolm X'. . .when I was 4 years old.
- Popularity of Palin rising with book tour
- Palin Draws Thousands to Book Signing at Fort Bragg
- Thousands wait hours to meet Sarah Palin
- Thousands line up in Michigan for Palin
- Thousands throng to Palin as she begins book tour
- Thousands wait in line in Fort Wayne for Day 2 of Sarah Palin's 'Going Rogue' book tour
- Palin Supporters Crowd Noblesville Bookstore
and I would be remiss if I left out. . .
- Billy Graham: God was using Palin 'to wake America up'
- Just this October, Celebrity: "Thousands flock to Katie Price book signing"
- Last July, Boxer: "Oscar De La Hoya draws thousands"
- Last September, Politician: "Ron Paul Crashes the Grand Old Party"
- February 2009, Football Coach Tony Dungy: "Welcome the `Uncommon' man, Dungy's book tour renews his friendship with Fort Wayne."
- August 2009, Celebrity Chef: "Paula Deen Book Signing Draws Hundreds to Downtown Savannah"
and perhaps more in tune with the Palin Tour. . .
- Last November, university of Illinois MASCOT: "Thousands turn out to see Chief Illiniwek dance." Yes, this too was a book signing!
11.22.2009
3 Good Holiday Gift Books
Chopping Down A Trump
News of two units going into foreclosure at Chicago's Trump Tower comes this weekend. The bank action will be the first of it's kind in the long suffering project, though more than a few expect this to be only the beginning.
- Pre-construction condo-owners in the building have waged a fierce bidding war with the Trump group to dump their properties to prospective owners in the building. This has led to massive price reductions on the sale of every unit since the Grand Opening. All you need know on that front is 25% off is the opening, and it just starts going down from there. This is why the developer still has the same amount of units since opening.
- Chicago has entered a housing glut some describe as, "the worst in the nation." We have more empty units in the city of Chicago (with more on the way), than any city in the country. At last count, there were 22,600 unsold, EMPTY condo-units in the Loop and 4 surrounding neighborhoods as of 09.30.09. All told, analysts believe the city-wide number to be as high as 110,000, counting only the empties,tens of thousands of more "condos" were transferred to rental properties after sitting on the market for 2 years. A lot of that has to do with...
- The Olympic Dream was foiled in October, so the city's plan of filling all these empties with the workforce that was sure to come with the jobs the Games would have provided.
- Trump has remained a dick. Please read THIS farcical article from 2007 on how demand for living quarters at the property was so strong, he had to "cut out friends and family." If the Donald were being eaten by sharks in the open sea, while drowning, during an alien attack on the earth, he would say that it is "all a part of the plan and good for business." Everyone told him the building was too big, had too many units and was priced to high for the Chicago market. But his ego told him that he was the person who could introduce New York-style pricing to the Second City. Uh, computer says "no."
11.20.2009
"Ghost" of Christmas Past
As we make the turn into Thanksgiving, all thoughts (in the Retail world) turn to the all-important Holiday Shopping Season. This year economist and retailers agree, there will be a rise in spending and moderate sales gains are expected in nearly every category.
Stocks jump as retail sales rebound in October
Retailers post best monthly sales in more than a year
Layaway for the holidays
Retail: Shoppers re-embrace the logic of layaway
"Big Gift" layaway becomes even bigger
But i think this headline says it best...
Desperate Retailers Bring Back "Layaway" Plans For The Holidays
Luxury Stores Trim Inventory and Discounts
Empty Shelves at Luxury Stores This Holiday Season?
11.16.2009
The Parkers
We can all agree, Chicago's parking situation is the worst in the country. How did we get here?
When parking meters were invented in the 1930's, municipalities (Chicago included) banned their use, as most considered the meter's usage would constitute "selling something to the public that we already own," the streets of our cities.
After their adoption in Oklahoma City, OK was allowed by their city council as a way to "break congestion" on high traffic streets, other cities bought in under the idea of civic betterment, or keeping roadways clear and safe, as evidenced by this 40-second clip about the instillation of the meter.
Streets of a municipality are provided for public use. A city board has no valid
authority to rent, lease or let a parking space on the streets to an individual
motorist 'for a fee' or to charge a rate or toll therefor. Much less may it
lease or let the whole system of on-street parking meters for operation by a
private corporation or individual.
But most considered it, rightly, in the public good, since revenues were used to upkeep streets and repair curbs, a serious problem at the time.
In 1989, Richard M. (Sonny) Daley would be elected, by the slimmest of margins, Mayor of the City of Chicago, and how parking was viewed by the city government would shift, radically, in a new direction.
Almost immediately after Daley taking office, the city would condemn (and purchase) a number of buildings in the downtown area, then turn them over to private interests for little or no profit to the city, regardless of their being located in the (at the time) best business district in the United States. Overnight, work began at tearing these structures down to build new office and retail structures, all with a bonus feature, new to the city, multi-level parking structures.
Next, the Daley administration moved to make owning multiple parking tickets a felony, which failed miserably. In it's place, he convinced a split City Council to approve suspending the license of those with more than 10 out-standing parking fines (later removed by the state of Illinois and subsequently re-instated in the late-1990's).
By 1992, with the newly-built multi-level parking structures completed, the Daley Administration started restricting more and more areas of parking in the area surrounding the lots. First on one side of Michigan Ave, Dearborn, Clark and Wacker, then the other as well. Soon parking along Lake, Randolph, Washington, Monroe, Adams, Jackson and Van Buren would be prohibited, leaving only Wabash, with it's many jewelers, furriers and legal firms, untouched. If you wanted to park while you worked or shopped in the Loop, you now had no choice but to head to the convenient new parking structures.
Since so many Chicagoans rebelled by parking their cars on the streets, hazard lights flashing as they ran their errand, the Administration needed a new weapon to deter said behavior. This came, three-fold, with the passing of the laws for: doubling your fine after 60 days (1993), the Denver Boot introduction (1993) and the city creating an partnership with auto auctioneers, by which to sell cars that owed (at the time) in excess of $1000 and were impounded beyond 30 days.
Lastly, the 1995 budget for the City of Chicago shows an unusually large increase in expenditures for "parking enforcement," as well as a tremendous spike in expected revenues. The city purchased six times the amount of tow trucks it previously owned, started giving quotas to their foot patrolman for ticket writing, expanded the automobile Pound-system, increased fees at all extant parking meters, increased fines for expired meters, increased the "storage" fees at impound centers, added a towing fee (even though the task is done by city workers, which is kind of like being charged a "policeman's fee" when getting a speeding ticket) and, for the first time in 20 years, added parking meters and parking restrictions to residential areas that had no ties to commercial well-being or congestion.
- Moved to become the first city in America to sell late parking fines to second-tier credit functions (debt-collection companies), thus allowing parking tickets to go on credit reports. This meant, for the first time ever, money that was not borrowed, and never changed hands in any fashion, became a financial (debt) product in it's afterlife (after the non-payment).
- Increased the number of "No Parking" and "Tow Away" zones outside of the central business district.
- Opened multi-level parking structures in neighborhoods across the city.
- Increased fees and fines seven times.
- Shortened the doubling of unpaid fines from 60 days to 30 days.
- Hired a ticket-writing brigade that enforces the spaces on the few streets where they are available.
- Introduced neighborhood parking permits, which granted the streets (city property) as a right to those that owned homes (private property) by proxy.
- Recently, and illegally (see this article), became the first city in America to sell it's civic parking system to a private entity.
11.14.2009
The Good Things in Strife
Rich buying again, but middle class still hurting
Since the economic downturn last September required tax-payer infused bailout money to flow to the coffers of so many companies, marketing efforts and purchasing by wealthier Americans have been slavishly pursuing one goal, discretion! And somtetimes to outlandish degrees.
Consider that last holiday season, Tiffany & Co., the premier brand in upscale jewelry, had a reward program for it's employees who brought in used bags from other retailers so that it's customers could leave their stores with anonymous purchases, well disguised from papparazzi that had stationed themselves along 5th Avenue.
At The Master's golf turnament in May, the familiar Banking logos that, up until then, grace the ultra-elite corporate sponsorship area, were missing. All the same companies were present, and at the same cost. However, the firms on Madison Avenue (rightly) decided it might put many Americans off to see the JP Morgan, Citibank, Bank of America or Goldman Sachs logos spending millions at a golf tournament mere months after recieving "emergency funding" from the government. The super low-key approach even extended to a "no business cards" ban in the tents.
This shroud of marketing secrecy has extended to most all product categories tailored to the wealthy, which has led to huge drops in revenue at magazines like Vogue, Town & Country and Robb Report, and even the demise of a venerable titan, Goumet.
I thought it might be interesting to illuminate, for the readers of this blog, a few of the products and services that have become available since last September. These were all launched during the downturn, have had viturally no advertising and are available for purchase as of today. Some are outrageous, some are alluring, and all make the Neiman Marcus Ultimate Holiday Gift look like Sharper Image.
The World
The residences start at Studio's, of which there a very few, and include one, two and three-bedroom condominiums that resemble nothing you will enocounter on a Carnival cruise. The ultimate luxury experience can be found in one of the two, six-bedroom Penthouses on board (one is still available).
The World boast a deli, a grill and 4 world-class restaurants that operate 365 days a year. There is a first-run cinema which seats 150 guests, at each port of call there are on-board lectures about the culture of the region being visited, a bookstore, a wood-paneled library, an full-sized internet cafe, a tea garden, tennis courts, a full (and beyond) range Spa and most luxuriously, the only floating Graff Jewelry boutique on the planet.
Price Tag: Unavailable, though the Studios sold for a bit more than $700,000 and were fractional ownwerships. Speculation is that the 2 bedrooms, which comprices the greatest number of the ships residences, start at $2.7 million + 8% ($216,000) annual maintenance fees.
More info at: aboardtheworld.com
The Manor
The Manor is a single-family residence located in the Holmby Hills section of Los Angeles, California. The home is not entirely new, but after the former owners could not find a buyer, a decision was made to nearly gut the home and give it a dramatic upgrade. Construction started at end of 2008 and will be complete in March 2010 (though the realtor states it's "move in ready").
The property sits on 4.7 acres of some of the most expensive land in the United States. One of the more unique things about the property is all of the acreage is on flat land, a rarity for property of that size in the hills of L.A.
The residenceboasts over 56,000 square feet, not counting the 17,000+ square feet of attic space, home to the in-house beauty salon. Additional features include: 16 carports, 3 tennis courts, an observatory, one indoor and one outdoor olympic sized pool, manicured landscaping and enough marble to make the Pope blush. The good news is it sells for $1.5 million per room. The bad news is there are 100 rooms (not counting the aforementions attic).
Total Cost: $150,000,000.00 from current owners Aaron and Candy Spelling.
More info at: Christie's Great Estates
Koenigsegg CCXR Trevita
I am no car-head, but I know "hot damn" when I see it. The Koenigsegg brand is known to produce some of the most expensive cars in the world, but they really went all out on this one. As soon as the nickname leaked (Diamond) the car world went all atwitter.
Since I have no idea how much power a unit of horsepower produces (or why we still measure cars by animal standards?), lets go straight to the particulars. All you need know is there are only (?!?) 3 available world-wide and the paint job for the car is done in diamond dust!
Seats: two
Total Cost: $5,ooo,ooo
More info at: koenigsegg.com or deatiled at jalopnik.com
Oakley Elite C-6 Sunglasses
The Oakley Elite C-6 sunglasses block the sunlight from your eyes. . . so you can see better. . .kind of like your hand. . .only more elite-like.
Each of pair of sunglasses take 90 man-hours to create, which is why the company has "limited production to 200." That was hard to type bcause the cost of each pair of these Oakley's will set you back. . .
$4000.00
More info at: Oakley
Hermes Crocodile Hoodie
I think the title is self-explanatory, but if I have to I will write it out for you again. This is a hoodie, made of crocodile pelts, by Hermes.
Who in the world is asking for such a thing, you ask? Well, one famous owner of this utla-indulgent piece of clothing is Mr. Pharell Williams. How much did he pay for his? More than likely, nothing. How much will you need to pay for yours?
$75,000.00!
More info at: Hermes
Dartz Prombron Monaco Red Diamond Edition SUV
The people at Dartz set out to create the world''s most luxurious Sport Utility Vehicle in March and, when they delivered on the promise this past October, the amenities became the talk of the industry. The automobile includes gold-plated bullet-proof windows, 22 inch Kremlin Red Star gold-plated rims, Tungsten and white gold gauges with diamonds and rubies, white gold, diamond and ruby grill and sideboards, Kevlar coating, a special-edition Vertu 9the world's best) mobile phone and three bottles of the most expensive vodka on the planet, Russo-Baltique.
However, all of these appointments took a backseat (literally) to the creative path taken in choosing seat covers for the Red Diamond Edition, whale penis. They choice was based on the mammal being "submerged for the entirety of it's life" and the organ only being exposed to the outside of the body for "short periods," which thus produces "a luxuriant skin, soft beyond compare." Since a whale's penis can "only reach 8 feet long, each vehicle needed nearly two of them for each car in production. How much for ride on this gentle giants genetalia?
$1,500,000
More info at: Jalopnik
Hublot Black Caviar Bang Wristwatch
While there are countless wristwatches that exceed the Black Caviar Bang's asking price, nothing in this price-range (or even close) has been produced in the hourolocical world since the market meltdown of last September.
The Caviar's cache resides not in it's complex mechanics, but instead in the watches surreal engineering. Although the case is made of 18 karat white gold, it is not visible to the eye because of the black diamonds, cut in various shapes and sizes, that seem to maghically float on the case and face of the watch.
The watch houses 28.5 carats tw of diamonds and took 2000 hours of work to produce. To hide this under your tree will cost how much?
$1,000,000
More info at: Hublot
Eton Diamond Shirt
The shirt-maker Eton was founded in 1928 and for the first 79 years, they were pretty much a sane company. That all changed when it came time to celebrate their 80th Anniversary. They wanted to celebrate the occasion with a bang. Instead from sartorialists around the world started measuring their management staff for straight-jackets.
What Eton produced for the big date was the Diamond Shirt, which is a shirt made of the "finest and rarest of Egyptian cottons" and features five colored diamonds on each botton along the placket and cuff.
There is no dry-cleaner on earth I would trust not to lose one (or all) of these buttons, but if you do, the Diamond Shirt can be yours for. . .
$38,300.00 each
More info at: nowhere. the shirt sold already at Harrods.
Ralph Lauren Notorious
What percentage of the cloth used in making Ralph Lauren's pants is needed for the area covering his balls? I would think nearly all of it, or at least 90%.
When he annouced a launch of his signature frangrance early this year (it's now available), nobody could imagine he would race to the top of the chart as one of the most expensive on the market. For the sake of comparison I have to let the cat out of the bag early on this one. The 2.5 ounce bottle comes in at a whopping $4,000.00.
I know there are (few) more expensive fragrances on the market (the Clive Christian's Imperial Majesty at $215,000 comes to mind), however none of them have launched in the past 3 years and on a per-ounce basis are arguably a better value. The IM comes in at $12, 800 per once, to Ralph's $1,850. The difference is, when you are done with the Notorious, you will have an empty bottle, whereas upon completing your Imperial Majesty, you will still be in ownership of a hand-crafted Baccarat container with an 18-k gold collar and a 5 carat diamond at the crown of the stopper.
Both Katie Holmes and Elton John wear Imperial Majesty, and unopened bottles (only 10 of each men's and womens are produced each year) are verified to be housed in airtight safe-deposit boxes as investment goods by collectors. Thus far, there are no significant names attached to the Lauren offering. And to quote David Allen Grier, Ralph Lauren "Have you lost your damn mind?"
Lastly and just in time for Thanksgiving. . .
4505 Meats Turducken
Is it possible that I could convince you that an uncooked Thanksgiving turkey could be considered a luxury product? Well you are correct, a turkey cannot be counted as such.
However we are not talking about a turkey, we are talking about a Turducken, which is described by it's seller, 4505 Meats, as:
a combination of turkey, duck and chicken which comes on a bed of root
vegetables in a roasting pan and includes an electric thermometer with a preset
alarm on it, making it simple for home cooks to follow the directions and pull
the bird from the oven when the thermometer beeps.
The 15-20 pound bird (or bird, bird, bird) is going fast so place your order NOW!
$225.00
More info at: 4505Meats and pick up an "spritual t-shirt" from them while you're shopping, because God help us all.
11.10.2009
What's in a Name?
The idea of changing my name to John, or Bill, or Harry crossed my mind about as much as John, Bill and Harry pondered the idea of making the jump to Sirami, which means never.
I often wonder why people make fun of names? The name "Shelonda," for instance, was outrageous in the 80's, but now seems tame and pretty mainstream. The martin family caused a mini-uproar when news started coming in that their baby was named Apple. 10 years later, no so much of a big deal.
As a youth in the 1970's, NOBODY had a name that was out of the ordinary. When my teacher took attendance, even she would join the chorus of guffaws as she butchers my name. Take a poll of the people you know older than 35, you will encounter nothing but biblical or Anglophilic names, usually running straight down the center of the mainstream. Perhaps this was because many of our parents were born in the 1940's and 50's, the very height of America and the American Ideal. Conformity as a stated goal never has been, and (hopefully) never will be so, universally accepted as the goal of society was the thinking of those times.
One recent trend is naming children after celebrities. Which got me to thinking about who celebrities were named after. This led me on a slippery slope to a startling discovery: many celebrity names are NOT their actual names. Why these people chose to go with a pseudonym is obvious in some cases, unclear in others, but sad in all. They would still be the fantastically-talented individuals they are today, but all the while carrying on the tradition their parents bestowed upon them.
So if you name your child a celebrity name, to borrow from Steveland Jedkins (sic Stevie Wonder), make sure you're sure.
A Sampling of Celebrity Name Changes:
Actor Cary Grant was born...
Archibald Alexander Leach
Actor Billy D. Williams name is actually...
William December Williams Junior (born in April)
Singer Shania Twain was born...
Eilleen Regina Edwards
Singer Garth Brooks was born...
Troyal (with cheese) Garth Brooks
Director Spike Lee was born...
Shelton Jackson Lee (which explains the glasses)
Actor Charlton Heston was born...
John Charles Carter (in a town called "No Man's Land, IL" later incorporated into the city of Wilmette, IL)
Author Danielle Steele was born...
Danielle Fernande Dominique Schuelein-Steel (her family founded Lowenbrau beer)
Singer Rihanna was born
Robyn Rihanna Fenty
Performer Fergie was born...
Stacy Ann Ferguson (and did voice-over work for the "Sally" Peanuts characters at age 9. Some may be of the opinion she currently does voice-over work for the adult characters in Peanuts while in concert.)
Musical Producer Ne-Yo was born...
Shaffer Chimere Smith (he was, reluctantly, given the nickname NEO (yes, that neo) for his "ability to see beyond the music." It would later morph into it's more familiar form.)
Comedian Jay Leno was born...
James Douglas Muir Leno (and was once advised by his high-school guidance counselor to drop out of school.)
Actor Will Smith was born...
Willard Christopher Smith
Ben Affleck was born...
Benjamin Géza Affleck-Boldt
Sports Reporter Ahmad Rashad was born...
Robert Earl Moore
Actor Albert Brooks was born...
(No Kidding) Albert Lawrence Einstein
Actor Ben Kingsley was born...
Krishna Pandit Bhanji
Chaka Khan was born...
Yvette Stevens
Charlie Sheen was born...
Carlos Irwin Estévez
Demi Moore was born...
Demetria Gene Guynes
Elvis Costello was born...
Declan Patrick MacManus
Fatboy Slim was born...
Quentin Leo Cook
Flavor Flav was born...
William Jonathan Drayton Jr.
Hulk Hogan was born...
Terry Gene Bollea
Jackie Chan was born...
Chan Kwong-Sung
Judy Garland was born...
Frances Ethel Gumm
Lady Gaga was born...
Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta
Jamie Foxx was born...
Eric Marlon Bishop
Nicole Richie was born...
Nicole Camille Escovedo
Martha Stewart was born...
Martha Helen Kostyra
Pter Coyote was born...
Rachmil Pinchus Ben Mosha Cohon
Larry King was born...
Lawrence Harvey Zeiger (and remains my favorite person in all of media)
Sally Field was born...
Sally Mahoney
Snoop Dog was born...
Cordazar Calvin Broadus
Whoopi Goldberg was born...
Caryn Elaine Johnson
Winona Ryder was born...
Winona Laura Horowitz
11.09.2009
Three, 3, Three: Part I - Health
11.07.2009
Hiding in the Sunshine
So I hated life, because the work that is done under the sun was grievous to me. All of it is meaningless, a chasing after the wind.
- Ecclesiastes 2:17
- They both preyed upon economically-unstable, drug-addicted, young African -American women, using the promise of drugs as a lure..
- Each involve the rape and murder of 11 women (so far).
- Each involve a 12th victim that barely escaped with their lives.
- Each involve police ignoring community complaints about the (alleged) killer for months, or years.
- Each involve a suspect that remained in police orbit, or custody, for regular cycles during the investigation.
- Each involve communities that had to literally beg (in Cleveland, to no avail) for a task force to be set up.
- Each involve communities that came under fire by the media, after the discovery of the victims, as not being "aware" or "involved enough" with the neighborhood, thus creating an atmosphere that "allowed" the predator to thrive.
- In each case the accusation would be proven to be categorically false
- Terry Blair - After being released from prison for the murder of his children's mother and her unborn child, he would rape and kill 8 women, while raping another 3 in the Kansas City, Missouri area, all within a three-month reign of terror. He would go undetected until a person following the case in the newspaper thought it sounded like the same m.o. from the Blair killing of 25 years prior and called a tip line.
- Ronald Dominique - Used the lure of money for sex to get his victims to follow him home in the suburban New Orleans area. He would kill 23 people, over ten-year period, before being stopped. He also went undetected until a man came forward to police with a story of Dominique's anger at his refusal to allow himself to be tied up. A casual, investigatory trip to the Dominique residence turned up bodies and brought the saga to an end.
- Paul Durousseau - Killed 9 (as two of his seven victims were pregnant) women throughout the Southwestern United States from 1997-2003. He used as a cover his being a taxicab driver to gain proximity with his victims. Even though the mother of his first victim gave police the name of the cab company and the driver's first initial, "D," as clues to help them when her daughter went missing, police did not follow up on the lead. Midway through his spree, he would do a month in jail for forcing himself upon one of his passengers, who barely escaped. And still no detection. He was finally picked up for a parole violation and, while incarcerated, a DNA match linked him to the other murders.
- Vincent Johnson - Preyed upon women in the impoverished areas of Brooklyn, New York in 1999 and 2000. While there was a task force set up after the 4th of his victims would disappear, he continued to go undetected. After police interrogated one homeless suspect over an extended period, they had to release him because his DNA did not match with the samples from the crime scenes. Upon his leaving he told them of another homeless man, Johnson, that frequently discussed "rough sex." When police approached Johnson, he refused to be questioned or to submit a DNA sample, which is voluntary in the State of New York. After releasing him, one of the officer's watched him spit when he got out of the car. They collected the sample from the street and positively identified him as the culprit of the murders. He soon confessed to killing 6 women over that period of time.
- Maury Troy Travis - Murdered 12 (he claimed 17) women between 2000 and 2002 in the St. Louis, Missouri area. It took the discovery of the 7th body (he had already killed 13, according to his count) for police to admit to a serial killer being in the area. They would turn up few clues on the killer, while Travis spent his days talking with reporters covering the case and his nights claiming more victims. His downfall came when he decided to, anonymously, send a local newspaper a map to one of the body of one of his yet undiscovered victims. The reporter (not the police), thankfully, recognized the map was from the website Expedia.com. After contacting the company, the reporter was able to trace the map search back to Travis' computer. Authorities moved in and questioned a calm Travis over a two hour period. Finally, they asked if they might be allowed to look at his computer, to which he blurted out," DAMN COMPUTER!" and admitted to being the killer.
All killers of poor, ethnic minorities, in urban, economically-unsound communities. All of which break every notion associated with patterns used by serial killers prior to the 1990's. All pretty much left unchecked while they committed their crimes over long periods of time, while their communities cried out for help.
This is a new phenomenon and therefore needs to be taken much more seriously, as the clear acceleration of the number of predators is great cause for alarm.